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The market at a glance: I can see clearly now
If you had told me two years ago that this investment newsletter would gain more than 1,000 new subscribers each month, I probably wouldn't have believed it.
But here we are, and the numbers keep growing! Today, 26,000 people receive it. Portions of our newsletter are even featured on the radio, in the Money Mixtape podcast on WRS, and in top newspapers like Allnews.
Your readership is the best compliment we could receive. It reinforces our conviction that finance can be enjoyable and should not be reserved for an elite few.
To celebrate this, we’ve slightly changed the agenda this month to offer you an incursion into what we believe will be the challenges and opportunities of the year ahead. But always with music!
Enjoy.
The market at a glance: I can see clearly now
Song of the month: “I Can See Clearly Now" by Jimmy Cliff
You read us, you hear us (yes, we like to put finances to music, but do you really know us?).
Behind Alpian's investment platform is a team of financial professionals writing these newsletters, conducting research, formulating market views, and managing portfolios. We are not a robo-advisor.
This month, instead of our usual format, we would like to share something special:
Our outlook for 2025.
Originally prepared for our premium clients, it's a deep dive into our investment process and how we are approaching the year ahead. The content may be more detailed and sophisticated than our usual updates, but think of it as a valuable detour – one that should help you navigate 2025 with confidence. In the spirit of “I Can See Clearly Now”, the iconic song from Jimmy Cliff, we hope this brings clarity to the road ahead.
And don’t worry, our usual content will be back next month!
Demystification room
As outlined in our Outlook 2025, our approach to portfolio management is data-driven and deeply rooted in an investment philosophy that we have been refining over the years. However, we were once beginners and had to seek answers to many important questions to develop our principles. If you are grappling with these questions yourself, let us share our perspective:
Is picking stock the way to make a fortune?
While picking the right stock can make you rich, it is statistically challenging. Only about 1 in 3 stocks outperform their indices on average, and the losses from bad picks can easily outweigh the wins.
Should you follow forecasts from financial experts?
Predictions and market gurus are notoriously unreliable. Studies show their accuracy hovers around 48%—no better than a coin toss. You're better off focusing on a solid long-term strategy.
Should you invest in themes?
Every year, asset managers roll out tempting thematic investment products, but the data tells a different story: 73.8% of thematic ETFs underperform vs the MSCI world, with an average annual shortfall of 4.7%. Build a strong core portfolio before dabbling in themes.
Is there a right moment to enter and exit the market?
There surely is, but the difficulty lies in identifying it. Most of the time, you only know in hindsight. More importantly, time in the market beats timing the market. Stay invested rather than trying to predict the perfect moment. Data consistently shows that trying to time the market leads to suboptimal returns.
Is diversification a miracle solution?
Diversifying your investments is important and can help mitigate risks. However, the devil is in the details. Over-diversification dilutes returns and focus, while under-diversification leaves you exposed to unnecessary risks. Strive for a smart, targeted mix.
Why is asset allocation so important?
Asset allocation is the cornerstone of investment success, dictating 80% of the range of future returns. It's more important than individual investment choices or market timing. To draw a parallel with sports, it is the mix of profiles you line up on the field that will dictate your success over the season, not whether you have one star player or if one player misses a match.
Can emotions drive financial decisions?
Yes Emotions can impact decision. Research shows that they can affect negatively our returns. The point is not to try and suppress emotions– but more to acknowledge when they kick in.
Alpian: Visit the new website!
We’ve heard your feedback and acted accordingly. Now, we’ve launched the new version of the Alpian investment solutions webpages on our website: better explained and with much more insights about the way we work. We invite you to explore them today!
