The market at a glance: Under Pressure

Markets are shifting. Interest rates are being cut. In short: economic uncertainty is keeping everyone on edge.

But amid the pressure, there are signals, and opportunities, that shouldn’t be ignored. We still believe investing is your best tool to build lasting wealth.

This month’s newsletter dives into the latest market movements and macroeconomic shifts, offering our perspective on what’s next.

Happy reading!

The market at a glance: Under Pressure

Song of the month: “Under Pressure" by Queen & David Bowie

What happens when two icons meet in the Swiss Alps? I’m not talking about another Roger Federer–Robert De Niro commercial, but something far more musical: the moment Freddie Mercury and David Bowie crossed paths in 1981. The result? The birth of a classic, now ranked among Rolling Stone’s 500 greatest songs of all time — Under Pressure. Few people know this, but the track (and many others) was recorded in Montreux. Just one more reason to make it the soundtrack for this financial update.

Under pressure — it’s hard to think of a better title to capture the market mood over the past month. Investors are on edge, unsure which way to turn. Governments are under pressure to reinvent themselves as alliances shift. The U.S. President is under pressure to deliver. Central bankers are caught between inflationary forces and slowing economies. Companies and public administrations, meanwhile, cut more jobs last month than in any February since 2009.

But before we give in, let’s take a breath. Pressure often signals deeper shifts underway — and they’re not always for the worse.

Key takeaways

• Since mid-February, financial markets — and investors — have been feeling the pressure.

• The announcement of new tariffs by Donald Trump triggered a sharp correction in equity markets.

• Bonds have posted modest gains. If the Federal Reserve shifts to a more accommodative stance, it could offer markets a much-needed breath of fresh air. Meanwhile in Switzerland, interest rates are once again approaching the floor.

• Nothing seems to be stopping gold’s ascent. The yellow metal is once again proving its worth as a safe haven when investors panic. An advantage cryptocurrency don’t have yet.

• The pressure is real, but we don’t believe it’s time to panic. In fact, we see opportunities emerging beyond the noise.

What happened with equities

Since mid-February, most equity markets have slipped into the red — with U.S. stocks leading the decline. The S&P 500 is down over more than 15% from its recent highs. After a brief rebound in the second half of March, the month closed and April started with a series of brutal trading sessions.

Pinpointing a single cause for market moves is rarely straightforward. Markets are a swirl of millions of investor decisions—most of them invisible and emotional. But this time, one culprit stands out and gets the blame almost unanimously.

The recent market drawdown is primarily attributable to actions taken by President Trump on the global stage. On April 2nd, the US administration released a new round of tariffs that could be imposed on various countries. These actions create significant uncertainties in two key aspects:

• Trade War Implications: A trade war means less global business and potentially reduced economic growth for everyone. More worryingly, the president's recent actions are fostering anti-American sentiment, leading to the redirection of global money flows.

• Even the brightest economists are scratching their heads over how to quantify the effects of tariffs—both globally and domestically. The ripple effects are complex and far-reaching: What do they mean for inflation? How will they disrupt global supply chains? What impact will they have on trade balances and fiscal deficits?

Right now, Donald Trump is on the wrong side of history — at least statistically. Since 1925, only one U.S. president, Roosevelt, saw the S&P 500 drop more than 15% in his first 100 days in office. But on the economic front, it’s too early to judge. Some elements of this new foundation could bring lasting benefits.

For us, the real concern is more the pace. Trump is rolling out his vision at breakneck speed, leaving markets to digest too much, too quickly. No surprise investors are struggling to keep up. This means that during this implementation phase, with limited resistance so far, market volatility is likely to remain high. Having said that, we are not overly worried and had largely anticipated this period of uncertainty. Towards the end of last year and in recent times, we took actions to prepare our premium portfolios for turbulence, including adding protections.

As market excesses are purged, we also anticipate buying opportunities. We are already identifying potential tailwinds:

• Earnings season and economic data: Even before the Trump era, in times of heightened uncertainty, investors have consistently looked to economic data as a compass. If the fundamentals hold up, markets could begin to find their footing—and even rebound.

• Trump's rush to implement measures: While he is pushing for rapid changes in the first 100 days, he may face resistance locally and internationally and have to moderate his actions.

• The Fed's potential intervention: The Federal Reserve could step in and provide support. Additionally, we may see countries come up with stimulus plans to boost their economies.

What happened with bonds

The strain on equity markets could have interesting knock-on effects for bonds and liquidity. If inflation doesn’t make a comeback, the U.S. Federal Reserve may come under growing pressure to lower interest rates in order to support the economy. Lower rates would push bond prices higher — a breath of fresh air for conservative portfolios.

As a reminder, the Fed — like many central banks around the world — raised rates aggressively throughout 2022 and 2023 to contain runaway inflation. These global efforts paid off, with inflation cooling significantly. But not all central banks have eased monetary policy at the same pace.

Take the European Central Bank, for example. It introduced a nearly mechanical plan to gradually reduce rates — cutting six times over the course of a year, from 4% to 2%.

The Fed, by contrast, has been more cautious — cutting rates only three times in the same period and holding them at a still-restrictive 4.5%. For households, that translates to an average mortgage rate of around 6.72%. Not exactly an invitation to borrow or buy a home. That’s why we believe that if the Fed adopts a more accommodative stance, it could help both markets and the broader economy navigate the current uncertainty more smoothly.

Among the central banks that moved fastest to ease policy, one stands out: the Swiss National Bank (SNB). And if you’ve had trouble keeping up with the pace — you’re not alone. Let’s recap what’s happened to interest rates (and ultimately to our wallets) over the past three years.

In June 2022, Switzerland still had negative interest rates — a period most savers were happy to leave behind. By 2023, rates had climbed to 1.75%. But just as we started seeing meaningful returns on savings accounts, rates were slashed again — down to 0.25% today. The new SNB chairman has even hinted that negative rates could return.

That may be good news for those looking to take out a mortgage. But for savers, it's a blow. And more worryingly, it signals that the SNB sees looming threats to the economy — from deflationary pressures to an excessively strong Swiss franc.

What happened with commodities, currencies, and digital assets

The commodity market wasn’t spared from tariff fears either—oil prices slipped to $60 a barrel, reflecting broader concerns about global growth and demand. In the meantime, gold has quietly crossed the $3,000-per-ounce mark pushed by negative economic sentiment. That’s the luxury of being a store of value for thousands of years.

Cryptocurrencies, meanwhile, don’t yet have that kind of legacy — and many are scratching their heads about their future. A year ago, few would’ve imagined a major digital assets summit being held at the White House. And yet, despite the visibility, performance is in free fall.

If even a breakthrough like that can’t excite investors… what will?

Still, let’s not be pessimistic. Markets are forward-looking machines, and much of the bad news has likely already been priced in.

Markets hate uncertainty — but it’s in these moments that the best opportunities often arise. Giving in to the pressure means selling at a loss, missing the rebound, and sabotaging a long-term strategy that could have paid off.

So, let’s stay calm and stay the course. After all, pressure isn’t just a burden — it can also be a driving force. As Mercury and Bowie sang: "This is our last dance, this is ourselves… under pressure." Pressure is real — but it’s often in these very moments that turning points are made. Including for our portfolios.

Demystification room: Why invest in 4 charts

Sometimes, a picture is worth a thousand words. Here are four images that illustrate why investing is a smart choice, even when markets hit rough patches.

Holding cash has a cost. We illustrate* how, on average, the value of 1 CHF has historically diminished under the pressure of inflation over different periods.

Conversely, a diversified investment can boost your capital. Discover how, on average, 1 CHF has historically flourished when invested in a balanced allocation** over different periods.

Instead of the average value of 1 CHF over time with a balanced portfolio**, we show what the best and worst outcomes could have been over different periods.

We illustrate the probability of getting less than 1 CHF at the end of various periods when invested in a balanced allocation** over different periods.

* Source: V Cianni, FSO. Statistics calculated using monthly from 29/12/2000 to 25/03/2025. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. For information purpose only. It is not intended to constitute a recommendation, an offer, a solicitation of an offer or as legal or tax advice. Opinions are my own.

** 25% SPI index, 25% MSCI World, 25% SBI, 25% Bloomberg Global Aggregate. Source: V Cianni, PBI. Statistics calculated using monthly data from 29/12/2000 to 25/03/2025. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Diversification does not ensure against loss of capital. For information purpose only. It is not intended to constitute a recommendation, an offer, a solicitation of an offer or as legal or tax advice. Opinions are my own.

Invest with zero fees this quarter – and real experts by your side

Markets may be uncertain at the moment, but your decisions don’t have to be.

At Alpian, we understand that everyone reacts differently in times like these. Some see opportunity, others feel cautious. But one thing is true for everyone: the best decisions are informed ones.

That’s why now, more than ever, we encourage you to speak with one of our wealth advisors to get the clarity, support, and guidance that you need—whether you’re ready to invest, prefer to wait, or simply want to understand your options. And remember, with Alpian you get:

• Professionally managed portfolios built for the long term

• 30% more affordable than traditional banks

• No investment fees until the end of June if you invest in April*

• And above all, someone to talk to: Book your call today.

*Any investment fees charged between April 1st and June 30th, for investments made in April, will be refunded as cashback directly to your current account in July.